Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 24, 2023 8:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.
In this game, Jaylen Waddle is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets.
With an exceptional 22.4% Target% (83rd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle stands among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.
Jaylen Waddle ranks as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 4.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.2 per game) this year.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's CB corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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