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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.8% pass rate.

In this game, Jaylen Waddle is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets.

With an exceptional 22.4% Target% (83rd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle stands among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.

Jaylen Waddle ranks as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging an impressive 4.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 88th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Dolphins, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Dolphins are expected by the predictive model to run just 64.0 plays on offense in this game: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.2 plays per game.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the New York Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.2 per game) this year.

As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, New York's CB corps has been outstanding this year, grading out as the best in the league.

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