Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-152/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
In this week's game, Jaylen Waddle is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 85th percentile among WRs with 7.5 targets.
With a high 22.3% Target Rate (83rd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle stands among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.
With a terrific 5.0 adjusted catches per game (88th percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle ranks as one of the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 65.0% to 68.1%.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 14-point favorite in this game.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 53.3 per game on average).

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