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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accrue 7.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among WRs.

Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 22.2% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among WRs.

The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68%) vs. wideouts this year (68.0%).

The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

More Jaylen Waddle Player Props

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