Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-127/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -103 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 8.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which ranks him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (70.1%) to wideouts this year (70.1%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving talent has declined this season, compiling a mere 4.8 yards per game compared to 6.4 last season.
Jaylen Waddle's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.9% to 65.2%.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.

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