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Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-145).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.8% pass rate.Opposing QBs have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 7th-most in the league.THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to earn 7.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.Jaylen Waddle has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 22.7% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among WRs.The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Dolphins are an enormous 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 57.0 plays per game.The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.Jaylen Waddle's receiving skills have diminished this year, totaling just 5.0 yards per game vs 6.4 last year.
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