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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+122/-165).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.

Jaylen Waddle's 60.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 53.7.

The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (67.8%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (67.8%).

The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Jaylen Waddle's pass-catching performance diminished this year, accumulating just 5.3 yards per game vs 6.4 last year.

More Jaylen Waddle Player Props

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