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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -149.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 8.6 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among WRs.

Jaylen Waddle's 72.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 53.7.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.9% to 66.8%.

The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

More Jaylen Waddle Player Props

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