Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -175 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to earn 8.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been a key part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 25.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.9% to 64.1%.

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