Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling out backup QB Skylar Thompson in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to total 7.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 21.1% this year, which puts him in the 79th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.6 plays per game.
Jaylen Waddle's play as a receiver has declined this season, averaging a mere 4.3 yards per game vs 6.4 last season.
Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.5% to 62.6%.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.8%) vs. WRs this year (61.8%).

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