Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 21.7% this year, which ranks in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in football (69.9%) to wideouts this year (69.9%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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