Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+135/-177).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -177.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving talent has diminished this season, averaging just 4.4 yards per game compared to 6.4 last season.
Jaylen Waddle's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.5% to 62.4%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

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