Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to notch 8.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 22.4% this year, which places him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving talent has declined this year, compiling a measly 5.0 yards per game compared to 6.4 last year.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.5% to 65.8%.

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