Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 7.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been a key part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 21.9% this year, which places him in the 80th percentile among WRs.
The Houston Texans safeties profile as the worst unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Miami Dolphins have used play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.
The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.6 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.

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