Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.3% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accrue 8.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 22.6% this year, which puts him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
The Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the 6th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 8th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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