Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 2:58 AM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to notch 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 24.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been among the best WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 6.4 receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
Jaylen Waddle has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, completing an impressive 74.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile among WRs.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.