Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 67.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 66.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
This week, Jaylen Waddle is anticipated by our trusted projection set to position himself in the 91st percentile among wideouts with 8.9 targets.
With a remarkable 22.9% Target Rate (83rd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle stands as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in football.
Jaylen Waddle profiles as one of the best WRs in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 73.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
Jaylen Waddle has notched far fewer air yards this year (74.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).
This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs defense has yielded a puny 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 4th-best rate in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. wide receivers this year, giving up 7.27 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-fewest in the league.

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