Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 5:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-134/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 59.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The projections expect Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 7.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 21.8% this year, which places him in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Jaylen Waddle comes in as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an exceptional 63.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 65.0% to 73.2%.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Jaylen Waddle has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (82.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 9.27 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 10.51 mark last year.

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