Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 69.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this week's game, Jaylen Waddle is anticipated by the predictive model to place in the 85th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.8 targets.
Jaylen Waddle has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 23.6% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has accumulated a staggering 79.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle comes in as one of the leading WRs in the game this year, averaging an outstanding 72.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
Jaylen Waddle's 68.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season represents a material growth in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 65.0% mark.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a huge 13.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Dolphins as the 3rd-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see just 127.4 total plays called: the lowest number among all games this week.
The Dolphins have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 54.8 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) generally cause lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher rush volume.

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