Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-104/-131).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 57.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.5% to 62.4%.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.04 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.