Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 55.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 55.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to notch 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 24.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has received a monstrous 23.3% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 79th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has been among the top wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 64.0 yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.
Jaylen Waddle has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, completing an impressive 74.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 54.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.