Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-330).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has posted significantly more air yards this year (80.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 53.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the league: 84th percentile for wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle ranks in the 93rd percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.60 per game.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.9% to 66.0%.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has given up the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to WRs: 0.60 per game this year.

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