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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 3

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+122/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +173 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 63.9 plays per game.

Jaylen Waddle has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 36.4% this year, which places him in the 94th percentile among WRs.

Jaylen Waddle has put up a monstrous 67.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 78th percentile among wide receivers.

Jaylen Waddle's 55.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 86th percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.

The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.9% to 64.1%.

The Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.1%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (61.1%).

More Jaylen Waddle Player Props

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