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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 15

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+257/-422).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -323 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -422.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.04 seconds per play.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Jaylen Waddle has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (88.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).

Jaylen Waddle's 51.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Jaylen Waddle's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.5% to 62.4%.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The Miami Dolphins O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins have faced a stacked the box on just 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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