Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-226).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +162 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a big 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Jaylen Waddle has compiled quite a few more air yards this season (92.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 53.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 81st percentile for WRs.
Jaylen Waddle ranks in the 94th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.55 per game.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the league (70.2%) versus WRs this year (70.2%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.1 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.5% to 65.8%.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to WRs: 0.64 per game this year.

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