Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.3% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has received a monstrous 23.3% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 79th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle's 53.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 84th percentile for wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, completing an impressive 74.5% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 84th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle grades out in the 87th percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.38 per game.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 118.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The New England Patriots pass defense has conceded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (60.9%) versus WRs since the start of last season (60.9%).
The New England Patriots defense has allowed the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to wideouts: 0.82 per game since the start of last season.