Jayden Reed Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jayden Reed

NFL · Player Props

Jayden Reed

WR · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Jayden Reed Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-172/+134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Green Bay Packers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.7% pass rate.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
The Packers O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Detroit cornerbacks grade out as the 5th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Packers to run the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 56.0 plays per game.
Jayden Reed has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, catching a mere 52.6% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 14th percentile among wide receivers

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