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Jayden Reed

Jayden Reed Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings

Jayden Reed Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 52.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Green Bay Packers.

The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.69 seconds per play.

The Vikings defense has been a notorious pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in football (36.7 per game) since the start of last season.

This week, Jayden Reed is expected by the projection model to land in the 76th percentile among wideouts with 6.7 targets.

In regards to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Packers grades out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Packers are a 5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually lead to worse passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.

This year, the daunting Vikings pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wide receivers: a mere 3.1 YAC.

The Vikings linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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