Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 7:52 AM EST

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-117/+104).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has posted a monstrous 111.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among WRs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba rates in the 100th percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) with a superb 88.8 mark since the start of last season.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 75.3% to 78.9%.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba grades out in the 98th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 0.70 per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
The predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 10th-most run-focused offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.0% red zone run rate.
At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 29.4 per game) since the start of last season.
While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has earned 50.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Seattle's passing offense near the end zone in this contest at 32.7%.