Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 9, 2026 9:47 PM EST

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+144/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -163 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a big part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 26.2% last year, which puts him in the 96th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has notched a colossal 109.0 air yards per game last year: 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 87.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 100th percentile for wideouts.
With a fantastic 75.5% Adjusted Completion Rate (93rd percentile) last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places among the most reliable receivers in the league among wide receivers.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a running game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to see just 123.0 total plays called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Seahawks last year (a mere 54.4 per game on average).