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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 5

Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+116/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, the Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed opposing squads to play 8th-quickest in the league (in a neutral context) this year at 27.87 seconds per play.

While Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been responsible for 16.7% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be much more involved in Seattle's pass game near the end zone in this week's contest at 30.1%.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (105.0 per game) than he did last year (73.0 per game).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba places in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) with a massive 62.7 mark since the start of last season.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is positioned as one of the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in an exceptional 78.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 87th percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seahawks to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The projections expect the Seahawks to be the 3rd-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 49.7% red zone run rate.

This year, the strong Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has yielded a feeble 58.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 4th-smallest rate in football.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the 9th-fewest touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.75 per game this year.

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