Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 8:12 AM EST

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-138/+122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is projected by the model to position himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs with 11.4 targets.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a key part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 36.3% since the start of last season, which places him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba comes in as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 6.3 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 98th percentile.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 75.3% to 78.9%.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 29.4 per game) since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Chargers defense has allowed a meager 60.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.