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Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+104/-134).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +132 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +104.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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In this game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 76th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.3 targets.With an impressive 71.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (78th percentile) last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba rates as one of the best possession receivers in football when it comes to WRs.Last year, the poor Denver Broncos pass defense has conceded a staggering 67.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 8th-highest rate in the league.When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, Denver's LB corps has been awful last year, ranking as the worst in the league.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This game's line indicates a running game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 4.5 points.The model projects the Seahawks to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Seattle Seahawks are projected by the model to run only 62.2 offensive plays in this contest: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.The Seahawks have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league last year, averaging just 54.6 plays per game.The Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
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