Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 10:27 AM EST

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 90.5 (-122/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 79.5 @ -194 before it was bet up to 90.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is projected by the model to position himself in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs with 11.4 targets.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been a key part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 36.3% since the start of last season, which places him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has posted a monstrous 111.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among WRs.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba rates as one of the best wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 90.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 100th percentile.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 75.3% to 78.9%.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Seahawks, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
At the moment, the 8th-most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Seahawks.
Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in football (just 29.4 per game) since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Chargers defense has allowed a meager 60.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.
The Chargers pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. WRs since the start of last season, yielding 7.80 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in football.