Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 9, 2026 9:47 PM EST

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 82.5 (+100/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 83.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 82.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may suffer.
The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to accumulate 11.0 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 36.0% last year, which puts him in the 100th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has notched a colossal 109.0 air yards per game last year: 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
With an impressive 85.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (99th percentile) last year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba stands among the best wide receivers in the game in the league.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a running game script for the Seahawks, who are favored by 3.5 points.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is predicted by our trusted projection set to see just 123.0 total plays called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Seahawks last year (a mere 54.4 per game on average).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks as one of the bottom wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 1st percentile.