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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Seattle Seahawks vs New York Giants

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 47.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Seahawks to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.4% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 4th-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Seattle Seahawks.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may go down.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (91.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (73.9%).

In this week's game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is expected by the model to place in the 81st percentile among wideouts with 7.4 targets.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's game, indicating more of a focus on running than their standard approach.

Opposing QBs have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-fewest in the league.

The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all air attack metrics across the board.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 4.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a meaningful decrease in his effectiveness in space over last season's 5.7% mark.

The Giants pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 2.81 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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