Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:17 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks may rely on the pass game less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be rolling with backup QB Drew Lock.
At a -14.5-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are big underdogs in this game, implying much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 66.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
In this contest, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is predicted by the model to land in the 78th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.8 targets.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Seahawks this year (a measly 55.8 per game on average).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been one of the least effective pass-catchers in football, averaging a measly 7.16 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 16th percentile when it comes to wide receivers
With a bad 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers in the league in space.
The 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.44 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-fewest in football.