Javonte Williams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 8:18 AM EST

Analysis

Javonte Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-182/+178).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (63.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Cowboys.
The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys offense to be the 6th-fastest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.44 seconds per play.
With a sizeable 7.8% Red Zone Target Rate (76th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams stands as one of the RB receiving threats with the most usage near the end zone in the NFL.
Javonte Williams's 95.6% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a material progression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 75.9% figure.
With an outstanding ratio of 0.12 per game through the air (80th percentile), Javonte Williams has been as one of the best receiving touchdown-scorers in football when it comes to running backs this year.

Favors Under

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Cowboys are favored this week, suggesting more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
Opposing QBs teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Indianapolis Colts, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 28.6 per game) this year.
Javonte Williams has been given 66.7% of his team's red zone carries this year, ranking him in the 95th percentile when it comes to running backs.
When it comes to air yards, Javonte Williams ranks in the measly 14th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.
Javonte Williams has rushed for 1.00 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (97th percentile).

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