Javonte Williams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 8, 2026 9:12 PM EST

Analysis

Javonte Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-178/+174).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.1% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
At the moment, the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league in the red zone (59.2% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Cowboys.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
With an impressive 13.0% Red Zone Target Rate (87th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams rates among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Cowboys grades out as the 8th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per play.
Among all running backs, Javonte Williams grades out in the 96th percentile for red zone rush attempts this year, taking on 73.1% of the usage in his offense's ground game near the end zone.
When talking about air yards, Javonte Williams ranks in just the 15th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -7.0 per game.
With an outstanding ratio of 1.25 TDs on the ground per game (98th percentile), Javonte Williams places as one of the best rushing TD-scorers in the league this year.