Javonte Williams Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Touchdowns

New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Javonte Williams Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-121/+108).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cowboys to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.5% red zone pass rate.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 2nd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Dallas Cowboys last year (a colossal 60.6 per game on average).
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) usually correlate with better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.
With an impressive 12.0% Red Zone Target Rate (86th percentile) last year, Javonte Williams stands among the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume near the goal line in football.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Cowboys being a 3-point favorite in this game.
Javonte Williams has earned 68.5% of his offense's red zone carries last year, ranking him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.
When it comes to air yards, Javonte Williams ranks in the measly 9th percentile among running backs last year, with just -3.0 per game.
When talking about pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Cowboys ranks as the 2nd-worst in football last year.
With a subpar 76.4% Adjusted Completion% (15th percentile) last year, Javonte Williams ranks as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL among RBs.

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