Javonte Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 65.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 63.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos have a new play-caller this season in head coach Sean Payton, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
At the present time, the 6th-most run-oriented offense in the league (41.6% context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Denver Broncos.
In this week's game, Javonte Williams is expected by the projection model to place in the 81st percentile among RBs with 15.0 rush attempts.
Javonte Williams has been given 54.5% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams has grinded out 51.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the largest figures in the league among running backs (77th percentile).

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are forecasted by the predictive model to call only 63.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (only 53.2 per game on average).
With a very bad record of 3.65 adjusted yards per carry (22nd percentile) this year, Javonte Williams stands as one of the weakest running backs in football at the position.

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