Javonte Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 45.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Javonte Williams has been among the top running backs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a stellar 3.49 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 88th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has produced the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 4.79 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game this week (32.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (47.0% in games he has played).
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends project as the 4th-best DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

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