Javonte Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Javonte Williams has been given 49.3% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Javonte Williams has grinded out 51.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in football among running backs (82nd percentile).
Javonte Williams has been among the top RBs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.57 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 76th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 38.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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