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Javonte Williams

Javonte Williams Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

Javonte Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-162).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -162.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Broncos, who are giant -7-point underdogs.

This week, Javonte Williams is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 81st percentile among running backs with 3.6 targets.

Javonte Williams checks in as one of the best pass-catching running backs this year, averaging an outstanding 2.3 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

Javonte Williams's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 77.6% to 80.6%.

This year, the anemic Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded a staggering 91.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 2nd-worst rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Broncos to call the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Broncos this year (just 51.1 per game on average).

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (just 32.9 per game) this year.

Javonte Williams has been a much smaller piece of his team's passing game this season (10.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (16.8%).

The Chiefs linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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