Javonte Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (83.5%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (83.5%).
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 2nd-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Broncos are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to be a much smaller part of his offense's pass attack this week (8.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (16.8% in games he has played).

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