Javonte Williams Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 12:52 PM EST

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-168/+140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ +140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Cowboys are underdogs in this week's game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their typical game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to be the 2nd-most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 62.5% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.9 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

In regards to air yards, Javonte Williams ranks in the lowly 4th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, totaling just -4.0 per game.
The Dallas Cowboys offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative influence on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the imposing Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 7th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing RBs: a paltry 5.3 yards.
The Houston Texans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 0.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season: the 4th-fewest in the league.