Javonte Williams Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Carries

Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 7:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -134 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Sean Payton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.4% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Broncos are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 9th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to earn 14.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams has garnered 49.2% of his offense's carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 88th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends grade out as the best unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

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