Jarvis Landry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jarvis Landry

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+330/-619).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +361 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +330.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jarvis Landry's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% jumping from 68.6% to 71.8%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (70.7%) versus WRs this year (70.7%).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
Jarvis Landry has posted quite a few less air yards this season (50.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Jarvis Landry's 33.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 54.7.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 10th-least TDs through the air in the league to WRs: 0.70 per game this year.

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