Jarvis Landry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Jarvis Landry

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jarvis Landry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+343/-659).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -647 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -659.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jarvis Landry to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (15.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has yielded the 6th-highest Completion% in football (69.5%) vs. wideouts this year (69.5%).
The New Orleans Saints O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Jarvis Landry has notched quite a few less air yards this season (51.0 per game) than he did last season (61.0 per game).
Jarvis Landry's 33.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 54.7.
Jarvis Landry grades out in the 1st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a measly 0.00 per game.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-best group of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.