Jared Goff Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 12:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1457/-2043).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Our trusted projections expect Jared Goff to throw 36.7 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.
Jared Goff is not much of a rusher and has accounted for a lowly 1.3% of his team's carries in the red zone last year, putting him in the 23rd percentile when it comes to QBs.
With an excellent 66.9% Adjusted Completion% (75th percentile) last year, Jared Goff rates as one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.3 per game) last year.
The Detroit O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

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