Jared Goff TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jared Goff

NFL · Player Props

Jared Goff

QB · Detroit Lions

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 23, 2026 1:28 PM EST

Analysis

Jared Goff TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+167/-203).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -257 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +167.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to pass on 61.3% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 136.4 plays on offense called: the most out of all the games this week.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
In this contest, Jared Goff is predicted by the projection model to wind up with the 2nd-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 40.3.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 7th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL: 1.17 per game this year.
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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